Mike McGlone is back with his favorite take, and he’s not backing down. Bloomberg Intelligence’s senior commodity strategist doubled down on his $10,000 bitcoin call over the weekend — but this time he’s given traders a specific number to watch.
The $75,000 Line in the Sand
Here’s the deal: McGlone says if BTC can’t reclaim and hold $75,000, the path of least resistance points straight down to $10,000. That’s the level Bitcoin last saw in early 2020, before the money printer went full blast.
With BTC currently trading around $69,000, that means bulls need roughly a 9% push just to reach the first test. And then they’d need to hold it. Given that BTC has been stuck in a $65K-$73K range for five weeks, even getting to $75K looks like a tall order right now.
Why $75K specifically? It’s not an arbitrary number. That level has been a major turning point multiple times over the past year. The March-April 2025 slide ran out of steam there. The early 2024 rally stalled there too. It lines up with key Fibonacci retracement levels — basically, a lot of technical signals converge at that price.
The Pre-COVID Reversion Theory
McGlone’s argument goes like this: before the unprecedented money pump of 2020-2021, Bitcoin spent a long time hovering around $10,000. Zero interest rates, stimulus checks, and aggressive quantitative easing by central banks fueled a massive risk-on wave that lifted BTC permanently above that range.
Now that era is over. Rates are elevated. Liquidity is tighter. McGlone thinks the natural gravity is pulling BTC back to where it was before all that artificial stimulus hit.
“Before the biggest money pump in history in 2020-21, Bitcoin hovered around $10,000, and it may be reverting. Roughly $10,000 is also the first-born crypto’s most traded price since 2017, when futures were launched.”
He’s also pointing to the explosion in crypto token supply as a structural drag. Back in 2017, Bitcoin basically was the crypto market. Today, millions of tokens compete for capital, and McGlone argues that dilution is a headwind, not a tailwind.
Why Most Traders Think He’s Wrong
Look, McGlone has been vocal about this call for weeks now, and it’s fair to say the market isn’t exactly on his side. When he first floated the $10K target in March, multiple analysts pushed back hard, with some saying it would take something like nuclear war to get bitcoin there.
The counterarguments are pretty strong. Institutional adoption has accelerated massively — Schwab just announced it’s launching spot BTC and ETH trading in H1 2026. ETF inflows hit records in March. Morgan Stanley is onboarding clients to Bitcoin ETFs. This isn’t the same market that existed at $10K.
One interesting wrinkle in McGlone’s thesis: he expects the “flippening” to happen not between ETH and BTC, but between Tether and Bitcoin. He thinks stablecoin AUM will eventually overtake BTC’s market cap, calling stablecoins “the most enduring trend” in crypto.
That’s actually a more interesting take than the $10K call. Stablecoins have been on a tear — Tether’s market cap keeps climbing even as everything else chops sideways. Whether that’s bullish or bearish for BTC depends on your perspective.
For now, traders have a clear framework from McGlone: get above $75K and his bearish thesis is dead. Fail, and $10K remains the target. At $69K, we’re a lot closer to the danger zone than the safe one.
